ADAM::Impact Probability


This tool calculates the probability of an object impacting Earth or the Moon based on its orbital parameters and uncertainty. This is only a demonstration and has limitations. For instance, we limit Monte Carlo draws to 10,000, so impact events less likely than 1 in 10,000 are unlikely to be detected.

To use the service at scale, with less restrictions, or for programmatic API access please send us an email.


Step 1: Select an Orbital Source

First, search for an object by its designation in one of the available catalogs.

Select Orbital Data Source

Enter Object Designation

 

No orbit selected. Use the form above to search for and select an asteroid or other object before proceeding with impact analysis.

Step 2: Configure Impact Analysis Parameters

Set the parameters for your impact probability analysis. The start and end dates define the time period over which the orbit (with its uncertainty) will be analyzed for potential impacts with Earth or the Moon.

Analysis Time Period

Start Date

End Date

Date Format

Monte Carlo Simulation Settings

Choose between Monte Carlo simulation (which accounts for orbit uncertainty) or nominal orbit only.

Monte Carlo Simulation: Uses 10,000 draws to sample from the orbit uncertainty. With this sample size, the detection limit is approximately 1 in 10,000 (0.01%), meaning impact probabilities below this threshold may not be reliably detected.

Need higher precision for your analysis? Contact us at adam@b612foundation.org to discuss access to simulations with larger sample sizes.

Impact Targets

Select which celestial bodies to check for potential impacts.

Please credit Asteroid Institute, ADAM::Impact Probability b612.ai when using results from Impact Probability and any additional ADAM services.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is this?

ADAM::Impact Probability is a tool used to calculate and visualize impact risks from real or simulated asteroids with the Earth and Moon. This is a demo of the tool which puts some limitations on the inputs such as which orbital state vectors can be selected, the time range that can be simulated, and the number of monte carlo draws (max of 10,000).

How does it work?

This tool is built on top of the open-source adam_core library. It takes as an input an orbital state vector which represents uncertainty in the orbit's position and velocity as a covariance matrix. Samples are drawn from the covariance matrix and used as particles in a simulation. Those particles are propagated forward through time using the ASSIST propagator which functions as a highly accurate solar system n-body integrator. Collisions are detected at each integrator step and accumulated. Afterwards, the results are summarized and visualized.